US-Iran talks will give a chance to avoid war or pause before new escalation – Rezazade

The United States and Iran are preparing for direct talks in the Omani capital Muscat, which could be the first face-to-face diplomatic contact between the parties since last year’s military clash. The meeting comes amid rising tensions in the region and active efforts by Middle Eastern states to prevent a new major war.

In recent months, the Donald Trump administration has openly threatened Iran with a force scenario. Significant US naval forces are already concentrated in the Persian Gulf, while Tehran has declared its readiness to strike back at American bases and Israel. The formal reason for the escalation was mass protests in Iran and a harsh crackdown on the opposition, after which Trump put forward three key demands to Tehran: a complete abandonment of its nuclear program, a reduction in its missile arsenal, and an end to support for regional proxy groups.

However, according to diplomatic sources, the countries of the region insist on a narrower format of negotiations - with a focus exclusively on the nuclear issue. In particular, a compromise option is being considered to limit Iran's uranium enrichment to a level of about 3%, which would formally allow Tehran to "save face", but in fact would block the path to creating nuclear weapons.

International expert and first vice president of the Iranian opposition in Washington, Ali Reza Rezazade, believes that the talks in Oman are more an attempt to buy time than a real breakthrough.

"The US and Iran are in a state of strategic mutual blackmail. Washington is demonstrating military power, Tehran is demonstrating readiness for escalation. But neither side is really interested in a full-scale war that would destabilize the entire Middle East," Rezazade notes.

According to him, the most realistic scenario is a temporary agreement specifically on the nuclear program.

“Iran may agree to a long-term freeze on nuclear development in exchange for partial lifting of sanctions. This is a minimal compromise that allows both sides to declare diplomatic success,” the expert explains.

At the same time, he emphasizes that the issues of ballistic missiles and support for Iranian proxy forces have virtually no chance of resolution.

“For the regime in Tehran, missiles are a matter of survival, especially given the threat from Israel. And regional groups are Iran’s key tool of influence. There will be no real concessions here,” Rezazade emphasizes.

In his opinion, even if a joint statement is signed to continue dialogue and refrain from military action, it will only be a question of postponing the conflict.

“These negotiations may provide a pause, but not a strategic solution. The contradictions between the US and Iran are systemic in nature, and they will not disappear without a profound transformation of the Iranian regime itself,” the expert summarizes.